Risk factors of in-hospital mortality and discriminating capacity of NIVO score in exacerbations of COPD requiring noninvasive ventilation.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) is recommended as the initial mode of ventilation to treat acute respiratory failure in patients with AECOPD. The Noninvasive Ventilation Outcomes (NIVO) score has been proposed to evaluate the prognosis in patients with AECOPD requiring assisted NIV. However, it is not validated in Chinese patients. METHODS: We used data from the MAGNET AECOPD Registry study, which is a prospective, noninterventional, multicenter, real-world study conducted between September 2017 and July 2021 in China. Data for the potential risk factors of mortality were collected and the NIVO score was calculated, and the in-hospital mortality was evaluated using the NIVO risk score. RESULTS: A total of 1164 patients were included in the study, and 57 patients (4.9%) died during their hospital stay. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥75 years, DBP <60 mmHg, Glasgow Coma Scale ≤14, anemia and BUN >7 mmol/L were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The in-hospital mortality was associated with an increase in the risk level of NIVO score and the difference was statistically significant (p < .001). The NIVO risk score showed an acceptable accuracy for predicting the in-hospital mortality in AECOPD requiring assisted NIV (AUC: 0.657, 95% CI: 0.584-0.729, p < .001). CONCLUSION: Our findings identified predictors of mortality in patients with AECOPD receiving NIV, providing useful information to identify severe patients and guide the management of AECOPD. The NIVO score showed an acceptable predictive value for AECOPD receiving NIV in Chinese patients, and additional studies are needed to develop and validate predictive scores based on specific populations.

Los determinantes sociales de la salud y su influencia en la prevalencia y pronóstico de la EPOC: una revisión exploratoria / Social determinants of health that impact COPD prevalence and prognosis: a scoping review

Objetivo: el objetivo de esta revisión es estudiar el efecto que los determinantes sociales de la salud tienen sobre la prevalencia y pronóstico de la enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC). Métodos: se ha hecho una revisión exploratoria (scoping review) de los artículos publicados entre 2013 y 2023, y una búsqueda bibliográfica en Pubmed. Se encontraron 31 artículos que cumplieran los criterios de inclusión. Resultados: niveles educativos precarios, así como bajos ingresos económicos se relacionan con un aumento en el riesgo de EPOC, con incrementos del 44,9% y el 22,9% de los casos respectivamente. La dedicación a ciertos oficios, como la agricultura o los servicios de restauración, también aumenta la prevalencia de esta enfermedad y su impacto sobre la mortalidad. La soltería o viudez, el desempleo y vivir en áreas rurales con alta contaminación atmosférica son factores que se asocian a más hospitalizaciones, síntomas graves, menor productividad y mayor mortalidad. Las desigualdades sociales afectan el acceso a la atención médica y la adherencia al tratamiento. La EPOC es más común en hombres y en personas mayores, aunque algunos estudios muestran mayor riesgo en mujeres debido a su dedicación a las tareas domésticas y su exposición a sustancias contaminantes. Conclusiones: determinantes sociales de la salud como el bajo nivel socioeconómico, la ocupación laboral, la contaminación doméstica o ambiental, el estado civil, lugar de residencia o dificultad de acceso al sistema sanitario actúan como factores de riesgo de la EPOC e influyen desfavorablemente sobre ella.(AU)

Aim: the objective of this review is to study the impact of social determinants of health on the prevalence and prognosis of COPD.Methods: an exploratory scoping review of papers published between 2013 and 2023 was performed. A bibliographic search was conducted on pubmed, yielding 31 papers that met the inclusion criteria.Results: low educational levels and low incomes are linked to an increased risk of COPD with increments of 44.9% and 22.9% of cases respectively. Involvement in certain occupations such as agriculture or food services also increases the prevalence of the disease and its impact on mortality. Being single or widowhood, unemployment, and living in rural areas with high air pollution are associated with more hospitalizations, severe symptoms, reduced productivity and higher mortality. Social inequalities impact access to medical care and treatment adherence. COPD is more common in men and the elderly, although some studies reveal a higher risk in women due to household chores and exposure to pollutants.Conclusions: social determinants of health such as low socio-economic status, occupational status, household or environmental pollution, marital status, place of residence or difficulty accessing the healthcare system act as risk factors for COPD and have an unfavourable impact on this.(AU)

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in Spain between 1999 and 2019 / Mortalidad por enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica en España entre 1999 y 2019

Introduction Mortality from COPD has decreased in Spain in recent years, but it is unknown whether this decline has been homogeneous among the different regions. Methods From the Statistical Portal of the Ministry of Health of Spain we obtained the age-adjusted mortality rates/100,000 inhabitants for men and women in Spain and the Autonomous Communities for the years 1999–2019, using the coding of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 10, sections J40–J44). With the adjusted rates we performed a jointpoint regression analysis to estimate an annual percentage change (APC), as well as identify possible points of trend change. Statistical significance was considered for a value of p<0.05. Results During the study period, COPD mortality rates adjusted in Spain decreased from 28.77 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 1999 to 12.14 deaths/100,000 inhabitants in 2019. We observed a linear decline in COPD mortality in men at national level of −3.67% per year (95% CI −4.1 to −3.4; p<0.001), with differences between the Autonomous Communities. Mortality in women also experienced a decrease in mortality in two phases, with a first period from 1999 to 2006 with a fall of −6.8% per year (95% CI −8.6 to −5.0; p<0.001) and a second period from 2006 to 2019 with a decrease in mortality of −2.1% (95% CI −2.8 to −1.3; p<0.001), with again differences between the Autonomous Communities. Conclusion Mortality rates from COPD have decreased heterogeneously among the different Autonomous Communities in both men and women (AU)

Introducción La mortalidad por EPOC ha disminuido en España en los últimos años, pero se desconoce si esta caída ha sido homogénea entre las diferentes comunidades autónomas. Metodología consultando el Portal Estadístico del Ministerio de Sanidad de España obtuvimos las tasas ajustadas por edad/100.000 habitantes para hombres y mujeres de España y las CCAA para los años 1999 a 2019, utilizando la codificación de la Clasificación Internacional de Enfermedades (CIE 10, secciones J40 a J44). Con las tasas ajustadas realizamos un análisis de regresión de jointpoint con el objetivo de estimar un porcentaje anual de cambio (APC), así como identificar posibles puntos de cambio de tendencia. Se consideró la significación estadística para un valor de p<0.05. Resultados Durante el periodo de estudio, las tasas de mortalidad global ajustada por EPOC en España pasaron de 28.77 muertes/100.000 habitantes en 1999 a 12.14 muertes/100.000 habitantes en 2019. Observamos una caída de la mortalidad por EPOC en varones a nivel de España lineal del -3.67% anual (IC 95% -4.1 a -3.4; p<0.001), con diferencias entre las CCAA. La mortalidad en mujeres también experimentó una disminución de mortalidad en dos fases, con un primer periodo de 1999 a 2006 con caída del -6.8% anual (IC 95% -8.6 a -5.0; p<0.001) y un segundo periodo de 2006 a 2019 con un descenso de la mortalidad del -2.1% (IC 95% -2.8 a -1.3; p<0.001), encontrando diferencias entre las CCAA. Conclusiones Las tasas de mortalidad por EPOC han disminuido de forma heterogénea entre las diferentes CCAA (AU)

Long-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions and mortality for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Beijing, China.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to clarify the association between air pollution and hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and mortality in Beijing, China. METHODS: In this retrospective study, we recruited 510 COPD patients from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2009. The patient data were obtained from the electronic medical records of Peking University Third Hospital in Beijing. Air pollution and meteorological data were obtained from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Monthly COPD hospital admissions, mortality and air pollution data were analysed using Poisson regression in generalised additive models adjusted for mean temperature, pressure and relative humidity. RESULTS: There were positive correlations between sulfur dioxide (SO2 ), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 µm (PM10 ) and COPD hospital admissions in the single-pollutant model. An increase of 10 µg/m3 in SO2 and PM10 were associated with an increase of 4.053% (95% CI: 1.470-5.179%) and 1.401% (95%CI: 0.6656-1.850%) in COPD hospital admissions. In the multiple-pollutant model [SO2 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) combinations], there was only a positive correlation between SO2 and COPD hospital admissions. An increase of 10 µg/m3 in SO2 were associated with an increase of 1.916% (95% CI: 1.118-4.286%) in COPD hospital admissions. There was no correlation between three pollutant combinations and COPD hospital admissions. We did not find correlations between air pollution and COPD mortality in either single- or multiple-pollutant models. CONCLUSIONS: SO2 and PM10 may be important factors for the increase in COPD hospital admissions in Beijing, China.

COPD Mortality, Goals-of-Care Conversations in Serious Illness, and Advocating for Climate Change Science and Gun Violence Prevention-Highlights From the American Thoracic Society Conference.

This Medical News article is an interview with Debra Boyer, MD, MHPE, chair of the 2023 American Thoracic Society Conference.

El eje cardiopulmonar y la mortalidad cardiovascular en el paciente EPOC / Cardiopulmonary axis and cardiovascular mortality in patients with COPD

La enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC) es la cuarta causa de mortalidad en nuestro medio y habitualmente se consideraba circunscrita al territorio pulmonar. Los estudios más novedosos sugieren que se trata de una enfermedad sistémica cuya etiopatogenia más probable es un estado de inflamación crónica de baja intensidad que se reagudiza durante las exacerbaciones. La evidencia científica reciente ha puesto de relieve que las enfermedades cardiovasculares son una de las principales causas de hospitalización y mortalidad en estos pacientes. Esta relación debe comprenderse considerando que ambos sistemas, el pulmonar y el cardiovascular, se encuentran íntimamente relacionados constituyendo el eje cardiopulmonar. Por lo tanto, el abordaje terapéutico de la EPOC no debe comprender solo el tratamiento de las complicaciones respiratorias, sino también la prevención y tratamiento de las enfermedades cardiovasculares, muy frecuentes en estos pacientes. En este sentido, en los últimos años se han desarrollado estudios que analizan el efecto de los diferentes tipos de terapia inhalada sobre la mortalidad por todas las causas y la mortalidad cardiovascular en particular (AU)

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the fourth leading cause of mortality in our environment and was usually considered to be confined to the lung territory. The latest studies suggest that it is a systemic disease whose most probable etiopathogenesis is a state of low-intensity chronic inflammation that worsens during exacerbations. And recent scientific evidence has highlighted that cardiovascular diseases are one of the main causes of hospitalization and mortality in these patients. This relationship must be understood considering that both systems, the pulmonary and the cardiovascular, are closely related constituting the cardiopulmonary axis. Therefore, the therapeutic approach to COPD should not only include the treatment of respiratory complications, but also the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, which are very common in these patients. In this sense, in the last years, studies have been carried out that analyze the effect of the different types of inhaled therapy on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in particular (AU)

Low diastolic blood pressure and adverse outcomes in inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although intensively studied in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the prognostic value of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) has little been elucidated in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). This study aimed to reveal the prognostic value of DBP in AECOPD patients. METHODS: Inpatients with AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from 10 medical centers in China between September 2017 and July 2021. DBP was measured on admission. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality; invasive mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit (ICU) admission were secondary outcomes. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable Cox regressions were used to identify independent prognostic factors and calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for adverse outcomes. RESULTS: Among 13,633 included patients with AECOPD, 197 (1.45%) died during their hospital stay. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that low DBP on admission (<70 mmHg) was associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality (HR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.53-3.05, Z = 4.37, P <0.01), invasive mechanical ventilation (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.32-2.05, Z = 19.67, P <0.01), and ICU admission (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.24-1.69, Z = 22.08, P <0.01) in the overall cohort. Similar findings were observed in subgroups with or without CVDs, except for invasive mechanical ventilation in the subgroup with CVDs. When DBP was further categorized in 5-mmHg increments from <50 mmHg to ≥100 mmHg, and 75 to <80 mmHg was taken as reference, HRs for in-hospital mortality increased almost linearly with decreased DBP in the overall cohort and subgroups of patients with CVDs; higher DBP was not associated with the risk of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: Low on-admission DBP, particularly <70 mmHg, was associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes among inpatients with AECOPD, with or without CVDs, which may serve as a convenient predictor of poor prognosis in these patients. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trail Registry, No. ChiCTR2100044625.

Airway-Occluding Mucus Plugs and Mortality in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Importance: Airway mucus plugs are common in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, the association of airway mucus plugging and mortality in patients with COPD is unknown. Objective: To determine whether airway mucus plugs identified on chest computed tomography (CT) were associated with increased all-cause mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of patients with a diagnosis of COPD in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD cohort. Participants were non-Hispanic Black or White individuals, aged 45 to 80 years, who smoked at least 10 pack-years. Participants were enrolled at 21 centers across the US between November 2007 and April 2011 and were followed up through August 31, 2022. Exposures: Mucus plugs that completely occluded airways on chest CT scans, identified in medium- to large-sized airways (ie, approximately 2- to 10-mm lumen diameter) and categorized as affecting 0, 1 to 2, or 3 or more lung segments. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, assessed with proportional hazard regression analysis. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race and ethnicity, body mass index, pack-years smoked, current smoking status, forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration, and CT measures of emphysema and airway disease. Results: Among the 4483 participants with COPD, 4363 were included in the primary analysis (median age, 63 years [IQR, 57-70 years]; 44% were women). A total of 2585 (59.3%), 953 (21.8%), and 825 (18.9%) participants had mucus plugs in 0, 1 to 2, and 3 or more lung segments, respectively. During a median 9.5-year follow-up, 1769 participants (40.6%) died. The mortality rates were 34.0% (95% CI, 32.2%-35.8%), 46.7% (95% CI, 43.5%-49.9%), and 54.1% (95% CI, 50.7%-57.4%) in participants who had mucus plugs in 0, 1 to 2, and 3 or more lung segments, respectively. The presence of mucus plugs in 1 to 2 vs 0 and 3 or more vs 0 lung segments was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of death of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.02-1.29) and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10-1.41), respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In participants with COPD, the presence of mucus plugs that obstructed medium- to large-sized airways was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared with patients without mucus plugging on chest CT scans.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality trends in Spain, 1980-2020.

OBJECTIVES: In Spain, there has been a recent increase in the mortality rate for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in younger women. This study aimed to analyze trends in the COPD mortality rate in Spain from 1980 to 2020, evaluating any differences between genders and age groups. METHODS: Death certificates and mid-year population data were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. For both genders, age group-specific and standardized (overall and truncated) rates were calculated by the direct method using the world standard population. The data were analyzed using the joinpoint regression method. RESULTS: In both men and women, the number of COPD deaths increased from 1980 to 1999 (average annual increase of 7% in men and 4% in women), while from 1999 onwards, deaths decreased by -1.0% per year in both genders. In women, there was a significant final period of increase in the 55-59 to 70-74 age groups and a slowing of the decline in the over 75 age group. Additionally, an increase in mortality for the truncated rates was observed for women between 2006 and 2020. In men under 70 years of age, there was an initial period in which death rates remained stable or significantly increased, followed by a period in which they decreased significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows age and gender differences in COPD mortality trends in Spain. Although the data show a downward trend, we have identified a worrying increase in the truncated rates in women for the last few years.

Mortality Associated With Occupational Exposure in Helsinki, Finland-A 24-Year Follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to study mortality related to different obstructive lung diseases, occupational exposure, and their potential joint effect in a large, randomized population-based cohort. METHODS: We divided the participants based on the answers to asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) diagnoses and occupational exposure and used a combined effects model and compared the results to no asthma or COPD with no occupational exposure. RESULTS: High exposure had a hazards ratio (HR) of 1.34 (1.11-1.62) and asthma and COPD coexistence of 1.58 (1.10-2.27). The combined effects of intermediate exposure and coexistence had an HR of 2.20 (1.18-4.09), high exposure with coexistence of 1.94 (1.10-3.42) for overall mortality, and sub-HR for respiratory-related mortality of 3.21 (1.87-5.50). CONCLUSIONS: High occupational exposure increased overall but not respiratory-related mortality hazards, while coexisting asthma and COPD overall and respiratory-related hazards of mortality.

Mortality in non-exacerbating COPD: a longitudinal analysis of UK primary care data.

INTRODUCTION: Non-exacerbating patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are a less studied phenotype. We investigated clinical characteristics, mortality rates and causes of death among non-exacerbating compared with exacerbating patients with COPD. METHODS: We used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018. Ever smokers with a COPD diagnosis with minimum 3 years of baseline information were included. We compared overall using Cox regression and cause-specific mortality rates using competing risk analysis, adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, smoking status, body mass index, GOLD stage and comorbidities. Causes of death were identified using International Classification of Diseases-10 codes. RESULTS: Among 67 516 patients, 17.3% did not exacerbate during the 3-year baseline period. Mean follow-up was 4 years. Non-exacerbators were more likely to be male (63.3% vs 52.4%, p<0.001) and less often had a history of asthma (33.9% vs 43.6%, p<0.001) or FEV1<50% predicted (23.7 vs 31.8%) compared with exacerbators. Adjusted HR for overall mortality in non-exacerbators compared with exacerbators was 0.62 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.70) in the first year of follow-up and 0.87 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.91) thereafter. Non-exacerbating patients with COPD died less of respiratory causes than exacerbators (29.2% vs 40.3%) and more of malignancies (29.4% vs 23.4%) and cardiovascular diseases (26.2% vs 22.9%). HRs for malignant and circulatory causes of death were increased after the first year of follow-up. DISCUSSION: In this primary care cohort, non-exacerbators showed distinct clinical characteristics and lower mortality rates. Non-exacerbators were equally likely to die of respiratory, malignant or cardiovascular diseases.

Estudio de sobrevida a largo plazo en pacientes adultos con enfermedades respiratorias crónicas atendidos por infección respiratoria aguda por coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 / Study of long-term survival in adult patients with chronic respiratory diseases treated for acute respiratory infection by coronavirus SARS-CoV-2

La enfermedad respiratoria aguda por coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) se ha convertido en un grave problema de salud pública a nivel mundial. Objetivos: Examinar el uso de recursos sanitarios, riesgo de complicaciones y muerte en pacientes adultos con enfermedades respiratorias crónicas atendidos por COVID-19. Métodos: Estudio clínico descriptivo prospectivo realizado en pacientes adultos atendidos por COVID-19 en la Red de Salud UC Christus entre el 1 de abril y 31 de diciembre de 2020. Resultados: Se evaluaron 2.160 pacientes adultos, edad: 47 ± 17 años (rango: 18-100), 51,3% sexo masculino, 43,8% tenía comorbilidades, especialmente hipertensión (23,2%), diabetes (11,7%) y enfermedades respiratorias crónicas: asma (5%), EPOC (1,4%) y enfermedad pulmonar difusa (EPD: 0,8%). Los pacientes adultos con enfermedades respiratorias crónicas tuvieron mayor riesgo de hospitalización y uso de oxígeno suplementario; sin embargo, la evolución de los pacientes asmáticos y la sobrevida a los doce meses fue similar a los pacientes sin comorbilidades atendidos por COVID-19, mientras que en los pacientes con EPOC y EPD la admisión a la unidad de paciente crítico y riesgo de muerte fueron más elevados. En el análisis multivariado, los principales predictores clínicos asociados al riesgo de muerte en el seguimiento a doce meses en pacientes adultos con COVID-19 fueron la edad y admisión al hospital, mientras que el asma fue un factor protector. Conclusión: Los pacientes asmáticos tuvieron bajo riesgo de complicaciones y muerte asociados a COVID-19; mientras que los pacientes con EPOC y EPD tuvieron mayor riesgo de complicaciones y muerte en el seguimiento a largo plazo.

The acute respiratory disease associated to coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) has become a serious public health problem worldwide. Objectives: To examine the use of healthcare resources, risk of complications and death in adult patients with chronic respiratory diseases treated for COVID-19. Methods: Prospective descriptive clinical study conducted in adult patients treated for COVID-19 in the UC Christus Healthcare Network between April 1 and December 31, 2020. Results: 2,160 adult patients were evaluated, age: 47 ± 17 years-old (range: 18-100), 51.3% male, 43.8% had comorbidities, especially hypertension (23.2%), diabetes (11.7%), and chronic respiratory diseases: asthma (5%), COPD (1,4%) and interstitial lung disease (ILD: 0.8%). Adult patients with chronic respiratory diseases were at higher risk for hospitalization and use of supplemental oxygen; however, the evolution of asthmatic patients and survival at twelve months was similar to that of adult patients without comorbidities treated for COVID-19, while in patients with COPD and ILD admission to the critical care unit and risk of death were higher. In the multivariate analysis, the main clinical predictors associated to 12-month mortality risk in adult patients with COVID-19 were age and hospital admission, while asthma was a protective factor. Conclusion: Asthmatic patients had minor risk of complications and mortality associated with COVID-19; while patients with COPD and ILD had a significant higher risk of complications and 12-month mortality.

Relationship between Antithrombin III Activity and Mortality in Patients with Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

We aimed to explore the role of antithrombin III (AT-III) activity in diagnosing patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and chronic bronchitis, and its relationship with all-cause mortality of AECOPD patients. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses of the factors determining all-cause mortality. We recruited 279 patients with AECOPD and 91 with chronic bronchitis. On admission, patients with AECOPD had lower AT-III activity (80.7 vs. 86.35%, p = 0.002) and higher neutrophil percentages (70.12 vs. 66.40%, p = 0.02) than those with chronic bronchitis. The patients who died were older (78 vs. 73 years, p < 0.001); had higher CRP (39.05 vs. 5.65 mg/L, p < 0.001), D-dimer (1.72 vs. 0.46 mg/L, p < 0.001), FIB (3.56 vs. 3.05 g/L, p = 0.01) levels; and exhibited lower AT-III activity (71.29 vs. 82.94%, p < 0.001) than the survivors. The AT-III area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting COPD all-cause mortality was 0.75 (p < 0.001), optimal cutoff point 79.75%, sensitivity 86.8%, and specificity 57.1%. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that increased levels of CRP (HR = 1.005, p = 0.02), D-dimer (HR = 1.17, p = 0.01), WBC count (HR = 1.11, p = 0.002), and reduced AT-III activity (HR = 0.97, p = 0.02) were independent prognostic factors for all-cause mortality. Patients with AT-III ≤ 79.75% were 4.52 times (p = 0.001) more likely to die than those with AT-III > 79.75%. AT-III activity was lower in patients with AECOPD than in those with chronic bronchitis and is potentially useful as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in patients with AECOPD: reduced AT-III activity and increased CRP and D-dimer levels indicate a higher risk of all-cause mortality.

Cluster Analysis of Home Mechanical Ventilation in COPD Patients: A Picture of the Real World and Its Impact on Mortality

Background: Treatment of chronic hypercapnic failure in COPD patients with home noninvasive ventilation (HNIV) remains unclear.Aim: To create a curated cohort of all COPD patients on HNIV in Catalonia, perform a cluster analysis, and evaluate mortality evolution.Study design and methods: This study was a multicenter, observational study including all COPD patients on HNIV on 1st January of 2018. Patients were selected through the Catalan Health Service, and administrative and clinical data were obtained in the previous four years. Principal component analysis of mixed data and hierarchical clustering were performed to identify clusters of patients. Mortality was evaluated from 1 January 2018 until 31 December 2020.Results: A total of 247 patients were enrolled. They were mostly male (78.1%), with a median (SD) age of 70.4 (9.4) years old. In 60%, 55% and 29% of patients, obesity, sleep apnea and heart failure coexisted, respectively. Cluster analysis identified four well-differentiated groups labeled for their clinical characteristics: (1) obese smokers, (2) very severe COPD, (3) sleep apnea and (4) older comorbid males. Patients belonging to Clusters (2) and (4) had a worse prognosis than patients in Clusters (1) and (3).Interpretation: A high heterogeneity in the prescription of HNIV was demonstrated. Cluster analysis identifies four different groups, of which only one had COPD as the main cause of ventilation, while the other three clusters showed a predominance of other comorbidities. This leads to different survival outcomes, including an overlapping phenotype of obesity-related disease and sleep apnea with better survival. (AU)

Association Between Red Blood Cell Distribution Width-Albumin Ratio and Hospital Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Study.

Purpose: High levels of red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and hypoalbuminemia are markers of poor prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. However, few studies have shown that the red blood cell distribution width-albumin ratio (RAR) is related to the mortality of COPD. This study aimed to explore the relationship between RAR and hospital mortality in COPD patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Patients and Methods: Patients were retrospectively incorporated from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database and divided into two groups by a cutoff value of RAR. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to adjust for the imbalance of covariates. Logistic regression models and subgroup analyses were carried out to investigate the relationship between RAR and hospital mortality. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance of RAR and decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess the clinical utility. Results: In total, 1174 patients were finally identified from the MIMIC-IV database. The cutoff value for RAR was 5.315%/g/dL. After PSM at a 1:1 ratio, 638 patients were included in the matched cohort. In the original and matched cohorts, the high RAR group had higher hospital mortality and longer hospital stays. Logistic regression analysis suggested that RAR was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality. The areas under the ROC curve in the original and matched cohorts were 0.706 and 0.611, respectively, which were larger than applying RDW alone (the original cohort: 0.600, the matched cohort: 0.514). The DCA indicated that RAR had a clinical utility. Conclusion: A higher RAR (>5.315%/g/dL) was associated with hospital mortality in COPD patients admitted to ICU. As an easily available peripheral blood marker, RAR can predict hospital mortality in critically ill patients with COPD independently.

Predictores de mortalidad en pacientes con exacerbación de enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica / Mortality predictors in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

RESUMEN Fundamento: La enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC) es un problema de salud y constituye la tercera causa de defunción en el mundo. La mortalidad es mayor en los pacientes que presentan exacerbaciones de esa enfermedad. Objetivo: Determinar los factores predictores de mortalidad en pacientes hospitalizados con exacerbación de EPOC en una institución hospitalaria del segundo nivel de atención en Cuba. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio transversal en el Hospital General Provincial Camilo Cienfuegos de Sancti Spíritus, durante dos años. Se incluyeron 335 pacientes. Las variables recogidas se agruparon en sociodemográficas, clínicas, enfermedades crónicas asociadas y estado del paciente al egreso. Se elaboró un árbol de decisión mediante el método Chaid exhaustivo, la variable dependiente fue la mortalidad por EPOC. Resultados: Predominaron los pacientes del sexo femenino (55.2 %), con 60 años o más (79 %) y con más de 4 exacerbaciones en el último año (53.1 %). El modelo del árbol de decisión tuvo una sensibilidad de 97 %, especificidad de 89.3 % y un porcentaje global de pronóstico correcto del 93.1 %. Se identificaron seis variables predictores de mortalidad: insuficiencia respiratoria aguda, diagnóstico de neumonía, no utilización de antitrombóticos, tromboembolismo pulmonar, edad mayor de 60 años y el hábito de fumar. Conclusiones: La probabilidad más alta de fallecer durante una exacerbación de EPOC se da entre los pacientes con insuficiencia respiratoria aguda, los que son diagnosticados con neumonía durante el ingreso, los que no realizan tratamiento antitrombótico y los que tienen más de 60 años de edad.

ABSTRACT Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a health problem and the third cause of death in the world. Mortality is higher in patients who present exacerbations of this disease. Objective: To determine mortality predictors in hospitalized patients with exacerbation of COPD in a second care level hospital in Cuba. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was conducted at Camilo Cienfuegos Provincial General Hospital in Sancti Spíritus, for two years. 335 patients were included. The variables collected were grouped into sociodemographic, clinical, associated chronic diseases and patient status at discharge. A decision tree was developed using the exhaustive Chaid method, the dependent variable was mortality from COPD. Results: Female patients (55.2 %), 60 years or older (79 %) and with more than 4 exacerbations in the last year (53.1 %) predominated. The decision tree model had a sensitivity of 97 %, a specificity of 89.3 %, and an overall percentage of correct diagnosis of 93.1 %. Six variables that predicted mortality were identified: acute respiratory failure, diagnosis of pneumonia, non-use of antithrombotics, pulmonary thromboembolism, age over 60 years, and smoking. Conclusions: The highest probability of dying during an exacerbation of COPD occurs among patients with acute respiratory failure, those who are diagnosed with pneumonia during admission, those who do not receive antithrombotic treatment and those who are over 60 years of age.

Impact of a Home Telehealth Program After a Hospitalized COPD Exacerbation: A Propensity Score Analysis

Introduction: Currently there is lack of data regarding the impact of a home telehealth program on readmissions and mortality rate after a COPD exacerbation-related hospitalization. Objective: To demonstrate if a tele-monitoring system after a COPD exacerbation admission could have a favorable effect in 1-year readmissions and mortality in a real-world setting. Methods: This is an observational study where we compared an intervention group of COPD patients treated after hospitalization that conveyed a telehealth program with a followance period of 1 year with a control group of patients evaluated during one year before the intervention began. A propensity-score analyses was developed to control for confounders. The main clinical outcome was 1-year all-cause mortality or COPD-related readmission. Results: The analysis comprised 351 telemonitoring patients and 495 patients in the control group. The intervention resulted in less mortality or readmission after 12 months (35.2% vs. 45.2%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.71 [95% CI=0.56–0.91]; p=0.007). This benefit was maintained after the propensity score analysis (HR=0.66 [95% CI=0.51–0.84]). This benefit, which was seen from the first month of the study and during its whole duration, is maintained when mortality (HR=0.54; 95% CI=[0.36–0.82]) or readmission (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.66; 95% CI=[0.50–0.86]) are analyzed separately. Conclusion: Telemonitoring after a severe COPD exacerbation is associated with less mortality or readmissions at 12 months in a real world clinical setting. (AU)

Relationship between risk, cumulative burden of exacerbations and mortality in patients with COPD: modelling analysis using data from the ETHOS study.

BACKGROUND: The major drivers of cost-effectiveness for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) therapies are the occurrence of exacerbations and deaths. Exacerbations, including acute and long-term events, can cause worsening of COPD and lead to an increased risk of further exacerbations, and ultimately may elevate the risk of death. In contrast to this, health economic models are based on COPD severity progression. In this post hoc analysis of the ETHOS study, we focus on the progression of COPD due to exacerbations and deaths. METHODS: We fitted semi-parametric and fully parametric multi-state Markov models with the following five progressive states: State 1, no exacerbation; State 2, 1 moderate exacerbation; State 3, ≥ 2 moderate exacerbations; State 4, ≥ 1 severe exacerbations; State 5, death. The models only allowed a patient to transition to a worsened health state, and transitions did not necessarily have to be to the next adjacent state. We used the multi-state models to analyse data from ETHOS, a phase III, 52-week study assessing the efficacy and safety of triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate in moderate-to-very severe COPD. RESULTS: The Weibull multi-state Markov model showed good fit of the data. In line with clinical evidence, we found a higher mortality risk after a severe exacerbation (11.4-fold relative ratio increase [95% CI, 7.7-17.0], 6.4-fold increase [95% CI, 3.8-10.8] and 5.4-fold increase [95% CI, 2.9-10.3] relative to no exacerbations, 1 moderate exacerbation or ≥ 2 moderate exacerbations, respectively). One moderate exacerbation increased mortality risk 1.8-fold (95% CI, 1.1-2.9) vs no exacerbations. We also found a higher risk of severe exacerbation and mortality following ≥ 2 moderate exacerbations. CONCLUSION: Multi-state modelling of patients with COPD in ETHOS found an acute and chronic effect of severe exacerbations on mortality risk. Risk was also increased after a moderate exacerbation. Clinical management with effective pharmacotherapies should be optimised to avoid even moderate exacerbations. Modelling with exacerbations could be an alternative to current COPD models focused on disease progression. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02465567.